Both teams to score – Yes
When the odds are too short for betting on the Over 2.5 goal market, the most viable and better value alternative can sometimes be the ‘Both teams to score – Yes’ option, depending on, of course, a number of varying circumstances. If we look at some examples from the 2013/14 football season, it will make it clear when is the right time to go for a BTTS-Y bet.
In the Premier League, this season’s biggest scorers have been Liverpool with 90 goals (with 5 games still remaining), but crucially also 40 goals conceded. Their game at West ham on April 6th ended in a 2-1 victory for the Mighty Reds with odds of 1.45 EU decimal (or 9/20) for the Over 2.5 goal result, but a significantly improved offering of 1.8 (or 4/5) was available for the BTTS-Y bet.
When you consider that Liverpool have only failed to score in 1 away game, scoring 42 in total from 17 matches (and conceding 27 goals too), while The Hammers have scored in every home match bar 1 since the Christmas period, the likelihood for both outcomes seems similar but with far better value on offer for the BTTS-Y bet.
Form and the style of play of the team you are choosing is a very important factor, goals for & against statistics alone cannot tell the entire story. Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool side have been playing very attractive, open football. The high pressing defensive tactics they adopt can leave them susceptible to counter attacks from the opposition, while the number of players they commit in forward areas, of course, also leads to a greater number of goalscoring chances. In other words, you don’t have to bet on 2 very attacking sides to get a BTTS-Y outcome (usually the odds will be greatly reduced if you do) but simply look for at least 1 of the teams to have the same attacking philosophy whether they are playing at home or away, as is the case with Liverpool. Past results and head to head statistics can be misleading, far better to pick your other team on current form, as was the case here, with West Ham finding the net at least once in each of their last 9 home games.
To find other form teams in Europe’s top leagues who aren’t necessarily getting a lot of media profile, simply check out one of the many excellent stats websites e.g. Whoscored.com. They do a brilliant job of converting numerical ‘shots per game’ & ‘chances created’ stats into literal descriptions of a teams strengths and weaknesses. One of the most exciting clubs in Europe this term has been Hoffenheim in the German Bundesliga; they’ve been involved in 25 BTTS-Y outcomes this season from just 29 league games played. Their first 12 games all ended in BTTS-Y, with the odds starting at 1.8 and going down to a reasonable 1.62 by November. The stats compiled by Whoscored.com from their first 6 games gave a good indication of an open, attacking team who are liable to score and concede goals on a regular basis.
| Counter attacks |
Very Strong
|
| Creating long shot opportunities |
Very Strong
|
| Creating chances using through balls |
Strong
|
| Attacking down the wings |
Strong
|
| Coming back from losing positions |
Strong
|
| Shooting from direct free kicks |
Strong
|
| Finishing scoring chances |
Strong
|
| Creating scoring chances |
Strong
|
| Stealing the ball from the opposition |
Strong
|
While, just as importantly their weaknesses are listed as:
| Keeping possession of the ball |
Weak
|
| Defending counter attacks |
Weak
|
| Defending against attacks down the wings |
Weak
|
| Avoiding offside |
Very Weak
|
| Protecting the lead |
Very Weak
|
| Avoiding individual errors |
Very Weak
|
Most teams on the website have very few significant strengths or weaknesses, with maybe 3 or 4 at best for the majority of sides. There are many different categories of strengths and weaknesses, but Hoffenheim’s are almost a perfect template of what you need to look for when trying to be successful in the BTTS-Y market
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