FINDING VALUE IN FOOTBALL TIPS

To ever truly stand a chance of beating the bookmakers it is essential to bet at odds of “value”. Value betting is simply betting at odds that are greater than

the actual chance of winning.

A common mistake that most bettors make is to bet on who they think is going to win, rather than what bet presents the best value.

On the otherhand a common misconception about value betting is that it is all about backing rank outsiders. This is equally false. Value can come at any odds
in any situation.

Below is a percentage table, as odds presented in decimal or fractions are often
harder to work with, than percentages if I say to you I think a bet has an 80% chance of winning you will probably understand exactly what I mean. The bet should win 8 out of 10 times. However if I say something has a 1.25 chance of winning or a 1/4 chance of winning you may not immediately understand the chances those odds are implying.

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Odds Percentage Table

Fractional	Decimal	Probability %
1/100	1.01	99.00
1/50	1.02	98.03
1/33	1.03	97.08
1/25	1.04	96.15
1/20	1.05	95.23
1/10	1.10	90.90
2/13	1.15	86.95
2/11	1.18	84.74
1/5	1.20	83.33
2/9	1.23	81.30
1/4	1.25	80.00
2/7	1.29	77.80
3/10	1.30	76.70
1/3	1.33	75.00
4/11	1.36	73.33
2/5	1.40	71.43
4/9	1.44	69.23
1/2	1.50	66.67
8/15	1.53	65.50
4/7	1.57	63.64
8/13	1.65	61.90
2/3	1.67	60.00
8/11	1.73	57.89
4/5	1.80	55.56
5/6	1.83	54.55
9/10	1.90	52.63
10/11	1.91	52.38
1/1	2.00	50.00
21/20	2.05	48.78
11/10	2.10	47.62
10/9	2.11	47.37
6/5	2.20	45.45
5/4	2.25	44.44
13/10	2.30	43.48
27/20	2.35	42.55
11/8	2.37	42.11
7/5	2.40	41.67
3/2	2.50	40.00
8/5	2.60	38.46
13/8	2.62	38.10
17/10	2.70	37.04
7/4	2.75	36.36
9/5	2.80	35.71
15/8	2.87	34.78
19/10	2.90	34.48
2/1	3.00	33.33
21/10	3.10	32.26
11/5	3.20	31.25
9/4	3.25	30.77
23/10	3.30	30.30
12/5	3.40	29.41
5/2	3.50	28.57
13/5	3.60	27.78
27/10	3.70	27.03
11/4	3.75	26.67
14/5	3.80	26.32
3/1	4.00	25.00
10/3	4.33	23.08
7/2	4.50	22.22
4/1	5.00	20.00
9/2	5.50	18.18
5/1	6.00	16.67
11/2	6.50	15.38
6/1	7.00	14.29
13/2	7.50	13.33
7/1	8.00	12.50
15/2	8.50	11.76
8/1	9.00	11.11
17/2	9.50	10.53
9/1	10.00	10.00
10/1	11.00	9.09
11/1	12.00	8.33
12/1	13.00	7.69
14/1	15.00	6.67
16/1	17.00	5.88
18/1	19.00	5.26
20/1	21.00	4.76
22/1	23.00	4.35
25/1	26.00	3.85
28/1	29.00	3.45
33/1	34.00	2.94
40/1	41.00	2.44
50/1	51.00	1.96
66/1	67.00	1.49
80/1	81.00	1.23
100/1	101.00	0.99

So how do you know what percentage chance something has of winning?

This is where it gets complicated, and no tipster or betting system is ever going to be entirely accurate. Fortunately they don’t need to be, you just need to beat the bookies enough to give yourself an edge. An ROI of 10-30% is desirable over the long term. Anything above and your doing very well.

Bookies odds are driven by past data and market force. As an individual you have the power to go against the market and get some bets of value. Once again
if the market is saying Barcelona have a 70% chance of winning, but you think they have a 50% chance, you may decide to bet against them. Either betting the opposing side to win, or perhaps a double chance bet on the opposing side.

To work out your percentages you will need a system and you will need to test.

It pays to bet on football teams and leagues you understand and know well as
knowledge is power and the more you know the more chance you have of common up with a sound alternative to what the general betting market thinks
is going to happen.

While its true that the bookmakers and fellow bettors have access to the same stats you do, statistics can be interpreted in many ways. The bookmaker doesn’t need to perfectly interpret stats as they have a margin of error. So their odds are never the true chance of winning, they are the true chance of winning plus their percentage of profit (anything up to 10%).

Its your job to find the instances where the bookies have got it wrong or haven’t considered something you have.